Do you think the casino should give me a fair shot at playing? Maybe I'll get lucky and hit a jackpot. In fact, getting a little bit of luck can go a long way. Yes, I've heard of people hitting jackpots when they least expected to. People do it all the time. Still, we're talking about a casino here. No one expects to win every hand at a table game. Of course, no one does.
That said, if you look up the return to player (RTP) statistics of different casino table games and compare those statistics, you may find that some table games are better than others. What is return to player? Return to player (RTP) simply represents the amount of money, expressed as a percentage, that players receive in the form of winnings based on total bets placed during a gaming session. Think of it as the overall payout ratio for the entire gaming session. So, let's say you place a $100 wager and win $90. Your return to player would be 90%.
Now, the RTP varies by game. Some games have higher RTP values than other games. A good example is blackjack. Blackjack is often reported to have a return to player of 99-98.5% based on various conditions, including the use of basic strategy and favorable rules.
However, a very important note regarding RTP is that this is an average statistic, so you shouldn't feel too optimistic about beating the casino anytime soon. Although there are certainly times you may beat the casino, these instances represent a minority compared to the total number of hands played. While there are indeed exceptions, in general terms, the casino will ultimately win over the long run.
As mentioned earlier, the RTP is calculated using theoretical assumptions, specifically:
Of course, none of these assumptions hold true in reality. Specifically, in addition to random chance, players' decision-making skills and experience greatly influence the actual payout percentage achieved. Therefore, inexperienced players who frequently bust in blackjack can achieve significantly lower payout rates (even as low as 0%) than experienced players who consistently employ optimal strategy.
While RTP information provides valuable insight into potential outcomes at table games, you still need to keep in mind that RTP doesn't tell you anything about your actual chances of success when playing at a casino table game. Instead of just relying on RTP figures, you should learn about the game itself. Take time to develop solid skills in a particular table game and understand its mechanics and rules. By developing a strong set of skills related to a specific game — and learning how to avoid common mistakes — you'll be able to minimize your losses and maximize your potential gains.
Variance and Volatility refer to how regularly and predictably results occur in comparison to rtp. On the positive side of things, low-variance table games will generally result in more stable results than high-variance table games. The former will allow you to enjoy a steady stream of relatively small wins (or slightly reduced losses).
On the negative side of things, low-variance games typically have fewer opportunities for large payouts. Conversely, high-variance games have much greater potential for large wins (but with commensurately larger losses).
In summary, knowing how variance affects your gaming experience will enable you to select games that are well-suited for your financial situation and comfort level.
Therefore, choosing low-risk bets (i.e., bets that have relatively low Volatility) is often your best opportunity at beating the house at table games.
When you combine all the factors, these are the best games if you want to beat the casino. As a baseline, we stopped at 98% payout percentages. Why? Any table game or wager with a payout percentage lower than 98% is not worth playing for anything other than the excitement.
| GAME | WAGER / RULES | PAYOUT PERCENTAGE |
| Craps |
—Don’t Pass / Don’t Come —Take/Lay maximum odds |
99.727% |
| Craps |
—Pass / Come —Take / Lay maximum odds |
99.626% |
| Spanish 21 |
—Eight Spanish decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —The Player can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split —Player can re-split aces —Player can surrender after doubling down —Player blackjack always wins —3:2 blackjack payout —3:1 seven or more card 21 payout |
99.6% |
| Pai Gow |
—As banker —House way |
99.47% |
| Baccarat | As banker | 98.94% |
| Baccarat | As player | 98.76% |
| Craps | Don’t Pass / Don’t Come | 98.64% |
| Craps | Pass / Come | 98.59% |
| Blackjack |
—Four decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —Play can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces —3:2 blackjack payout |
98.5% |
| Pai Gow Poker |
—As player —With a hand-by-hand strategy |
98.4% |
| Blackjack |
—Four decks —Dealer hits a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —Play can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces —3:2 blackjack payout |
98.3% |
| Blackjack |
—Six decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —The Player can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces 3:2 blackjack payout |
98.2% |
| Blackjack |
—Eight decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —The Player can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces —3:2 blackjack payout |
98% |
The return to player (RTP) is essentially a measure of the proportion of total bets made on a table game by all players over time that the casino pays out to those players as winnings.
An example would be if you were playing blackjack and had an RTP of 98.5%. In this scenario, for every dollar you put down on blackjack, you'd win an average of 98.5 cents.
No, it isn't always accurate. The RTP is an estimated figure based on optimal player performance (strategy), therefore, if a player fails to execute strategy correctly (for example by consistently busting at blackjack), their actual RTP can drop dramatically below the published RTP.
Volatility or variance measures how consistent the payouts are for a given game relative to its RTP. If a game has low volatility, it tends to produce small to moderate payouts more frequently. Conversely, games with high Volatility may generate large payouts occasionally but with a corresponding increased likelihood of experiencing substantial losses.
Games with high RTPs and low Volatility are typically going to be your best option. Good examples of these include blackjack, craps (pass/don't pass bets), and specific bets in roulette (color bets).
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