Are the odds in favor of the casino allowing me to play fairly and giving me a chance to win? Who knows, I might even get lucky and hit a big jackpot. Luck definitely plays a role, especially since many people have hit jackpots when they least expected to. There is no doubt that many people have done so. At the same time, we are dealing with a casino. Nobody expects to win each hand at a table game. And nobody ever does.
That being said, if you research the return-to-player (RTP) statistics of different casino table games, then compare them to one another, you may find that one or two table games have a better RTP value than the rest. What is return to player? Simply stated, return to player (RTP) is the percentage of the money that Players are paid back in the form of winnings from all the money that was bet on that game throughout the gaming session. It is equivalent to the overall payout ratio for that gaming session. For example, if you bet $100 and won $90, your return to player would be 90%.
There are differences in RTP depending on what type of game is being played. Some games have higher RTP values than other games. An excellent example of a game with a high RTP value is Blackjack. According to numerous studies, Blackjack has an average return-to-player of 99-98.5%, depending on the application of basic strategy and favorable rules. As important to take note of regarding RTP is that it is an average statistic. Therefore, do not assume you will beat the casino every single time. Rather, while there are obviously many occasions you may beat the casino, the vast majority of hands you play you will lose, and thus the casino will win in the end.
As mentioned previously, RTP is calculated using theoretical assumptions. These include:
None of the above assumptions are realistic. Players' decision-making skills and experience directly impact the actual payout percentage achieved. Thus, a novice Blackjack player who consistently makes poor decisions and busts can potentially achieve significantly lower payout rates (possibly even 0%) than a skilled player who consistently employs optimal strategy.
Although RTP information is useful in understanding potential outcomes at table games, RTP does not inform you of your actual probability of success when playing at a casino table game. To truly succeed at table games, you should study the game itself and develop solid skills in that area. Invest time in studying and mastering both the mechanics and rules of the game(s) in question. By developing strong skills associated with a particular game -- and learning how to avoid common pitfalls -- you will be able to limit your losses and increase your potential earnings.
Variability and Volatility relate to how regular or predictable results are versus RTP. On the plus side, low-variation table games tend to produce more stable results compared to high-variation table games. This allows you to continually expect a stream of smaller wins (and slightly smaller losses). Conversely, high-variation games have much greater potential for winning large sums (although they also come with commensurate loss potential). Therefore, having an awareness of how Variance impacts your gaming experience will help you choose the most suitable games for your budgetary constraints and personal preferences.
When you combine all the factors, these are the best games if you want to beat the casino. As a baseline, we stopped at 98% payout percentages. Why? Any table game or wager with a payout percentage lower than 98% is not worth playing for anything other than the excitement.
| GAME | WAGER / RULES | PAYOUT PERCENTAGE |
| Craps |
—Don’t Pass / Don’t Come —Take/Lay maximum odds |
99.727% |
| Craps |
—Pass / Come —Take / Lay maximum odds |
99.626% |
| Spanish 21 |
—Eight Spanish decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —The Player can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split —Player can re-split aces —Player can surrender after doubling down —Player blackjack always wins —3:2 blackjack payout —3:1 seven or more card 21 payout |
99.6% |
| Pai Gow |
—As banker —House way |
99.47% |
| Baccarat | As banker | 98.94% |
| Baccarat | As player | 98.76% |
| Craps | Don’t Pass / Don’t Come | 98.64% |
| Craps | Pass / Come | 98.59% |
| Blackjack |
—Four decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —Play can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces —3:2 blackjack payout |
98.5% |
| Pai Gow Poker |
—As player —With a hand-by-hand strategy |
98.4% |
| Blackjack |
—Four decks —Dealer hits a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —Play can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces —3:2 blackjack payout |
98.3% |
| Blackjack |
—Six decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —The Player can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces 3:2 blackjack payout |
98.2% |
| Blackjack |
—Eight decks —Dealer stands on a soft 17 —The Player can double after splitting —The Player can split any two matching cards —Player can re-split up to four hands —Player can re-split aces —3:2 blackjack payout |
98% |
RTP means a statistical representation of how much money (expressed as a percent) that Players collect as winnings from all money they collectively gamble on a table game over time.
Example: assume you play Blackjack with an RTP of 98.5%. Then for every dollar you wager on Blackjack, you would win approximately 98.5 cents.
No. While RTP gives an estimate of what could happen to you based on a perfectly knowledgeable player (using strategy), if a player does not perform optimally (by continuously busting in Blackjack), his/her actual RTP can easily fall far short of the advertised RTP.
Volatility/Variance measures how consistently the payouts are for a given game relative to its RTP. When comparing games with similar RTP values, games with low Volatility tend to produce small/moderate payouts more frequently than those with higher Volatility. On the other hand, games with higher Volatility may produce large payouts occasionally but also have correspondingly larger chances of suffering significant losses.
Games with high RTP values and low Volatility will typically offer your greatest opportunity to win. Examples include Blackjack, craps (pass/don’t pass bets), and specific color bet options in roulette
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